Expand description
Monte Carlo dispersion, sensitivity analysis, optimization and challenge specifications.
Guide: Monte Carlo dispersion shows a run and how far to trust it; Sensitivity analysis ranks which inputs matter; Optimization finds the design that hits a target; Start here says what works today and what is planned.
montecarlo: one rocket flown many times with its uncertain inputs drawn afresh each time, seeded and reproducible sample by sample, in parallel with theparallelfeature.statistics: the spread of what the samples gave, with the failed ones counted.ellipse: where the landings scatter, as an ellipse holding a chosen share of them.sensitivity: which uncertain inputs move a result most, by Morris’s screening and Sobol’ indices.optimize: the design variables that make a result as small as it can be, by CMA-ES; to hit a target apogee, say.
Status: dispersion, the apogee’s spread, landing ellipses and sensitivity analysis (milestones M6.1a to M6.1c of the roadmap), and optimization over continuous variables (M6.2a). Discrete choices, constraints and several objectives are planned for the rest of M6.2, and challenge specifications for M6.3.
Modules§
- ellipse
- Landing ellipses: where a rocket’s landings scatter on the ground, as an ellipse that holds a chosen share of them.
- montecarlo
- Monte Carlo dispersion: one rocket flown many times, each time with its uncertain inputs drawn afresh, to see how far its apogee and landing spread.
- optimize
- Optimization: the design variables that make a model’s output as small as it can be.
- sensitivity
- Sensitivity analysis: which of a model’s uncertain inputs move its output most.
- statistics
- Summaries of a sample of numbers: the spread of a Monte Carlo run’s apogees, say.
- table
- A Monte Carlo
Runas a table: one row a sample, in index order, and one column an input it drew or a number its flight came to.hpr mcwrites it as CSV (RunTable::csv), each number in the shortest form that reads back to the same bits, so a program reading the file gets the run’s own numbers.
Enums§
- Analysis
Error - What an analysis refuses or can’t do.